U.S. universities warned international students after Donald Trump won. But visa data shows that, in Trump’s first presidency, foreign students were largely left alone.
After Donald Trump won the November election, many U.S. universities took the proactive step of warning their international students against staying abroad for the holidays beyond Jan. 20, Trump’s first day in office, for fear that the students would have trouble returning to the U.S. under the new administration.
University administrators’ worries are well-founded: a few days after Trump started his first term in 2017, thousands of students were stuck in their home countries after he issued a travel ban against Muslim-dominated nations. Foreign students were also a specific target for Republican lawmakers after the campus protests against Israel’s war in Gaza last summer.
Since his return to the White House, Trump has already asked immigration officials to tighten visa vetting procedures, which will likely slow processing times in embassies and consulates. Immigration advocates had expected this increased bureaucratic red tape, which was also a hallmark of Trump’s first term. However, data from his first administration paints a less grim picture for foreign students than Trump’s harsh rhetoric might suggest. During those years, the flow of international students stayed elevated. This time around, experts expect a similar pattern: while cracking down on some kinds of immigration, others, like students, will proceed largely unchanged.
The U.S. has issued between 300,000 and 500,000 F visas, the most common type of student visa, every year since 2007, government data showed. This was up from about 200,000 in the prior decade, and, excluding tourist and transit visas, represented a fifth of all resident non-immigrant visas every year.
The foreign student population in the U.S. is the world’s largest, hitting a record 1.1 million in the 2023-24 academic year, according to State Department data. The majority come from China and India, and thousands of international students, with many securing employment in U.S. companies after their studies, filling key roles in industries such as tech and finance.
During Trump’s first term at the White House, the approval rates for student visas declined slightly in 2017 and 2018, but rebounded in 2019. The same was true for the total number of visas issued. After the pandemic reduced visa issuances, student visas recovered the fastest among all types of visas, rising over 300% from 2020 to 2023. Against economic and political upheavals, the flow of foreign students to the U.S. was merely interrupted but not stopped. Fanta Aw, chief executive officer of NAFSA: Association of International Educators, a non-profit dedicated to education exchange, said there is an economic reason for it.
“When you think about the U.S. and its economy, it’s not only about the students, but who they become afterwards,” Aw said. “These students become workers, researchers and leaders back home. It’s an important component of U.S. international engagement.”
“Meanwhile, while they’re here, they contribute economically. That is something the U.S. cannot afford to ignore,” she added.
The White House has declined to comment when asked if Trump’s immigration crackdown will involve reducing the number of foreign students.
While on campus, international students are a stable revenue source for U.S. universities and the localities hosting them. In 2023, foreign students paid $43.8 billion in tuition and school fees as well as cost of living expenses that benefited local businesses, NAFSA data showed. States did not benefit equally from foreign student spending: only 12 states were billion-dollar earners, including Florida, Trump’s home state, with $1.1 billion.
After they graduate, most foreign students opt to stay in the U.S. for a year to work under a program that authorizes recent international graduates to work in the country without sponsorship from an employer. The period goes up to three years for students holding degrees affiliated with science and technology, engineering and math, or STEM.
In 2023, the Department of Homeland Security recorded 222,663 of these work authorizations for graduates, an all-time high. About 62,000 of those were for STEM graduates, also a record number. The last peak had been during Trump’s first year in office in 2017, when overall authorizations rose 21.1% from the year before, and STEM-related authorizations jumped 54.3%, faster than the average of 30.2% growth since the program started in 2008.
“It is no secret that there is a massive shortage of people in STEM fields. International students help fill that demand,” Aw said. A report by the National Science Board, a federal agency, revealed that one in five people employed in STEM occupations in 2021 were foreigners as the U.S. does not produce enough graduates in STEM fields.
However, talent demand alone will not shield foreign students from the potential effects of Trump’s stricter U.S. immigration policy. Like the Muslim travel ban in 2017, a broad tightening of immigration rules will inevitably mean more documentation, requests for evidence and longer waiting times for visas, including student visas.
“They’re going to throw sand in gears,” said Leslie Dellon, senior attorney at the American Immigration Council, a think tank. Under the last Trump administration, processing times for work permits rose steadily until the pandemic, when wait times dropped along with the number of applications.
Work permits may also come under scrutiny, Aw said, as Republicans question whether foreign workers are taking over American jobs. In December, Republican officials criticized U.S. companies hiring foreign workers through work visas, which did not sit well with tech billionaire Elon Musk. Trump has said he supports H-1B, the most common type of work visa.
A majority— 84%— of student visa holders had transitioned to H-1B, sponsored by U.S. employers, for the decade ending 2018, a government report showed.
Apart from logistical roadblocks, Julia Gelatt, associate director of U.S. immigration policy at the Migration Policy Institute, said some prospective students may be deterred by the “unfriendly” rhetoric and opt to study elsewhere.
However, a massive slowdown in foreign student entry remains unlikely, she said.
“The reasons that people come to the United States, the economic and educational opportunities we have here, are still so strong,” Gelatt said.
“As long as the U.S. is relatively stable with a strong economy, I think people will want to continue to come,” she added.
Read More: Reuters